Introduction
The recent sacking of Xabi Alonso as the coach of Real Madrid C.F. has sent shockwaves through the football world. While the departure of any high-profile coach is significant, the problems at Real Madrid may be more deeply rooted in the quality of the squad rather than the coaching staff. In this article, we aim to let the data speak and provide a view which is based on the Footballgenius Player Ratings (FPR), a data-driven measure developed by footballgenius.io.
The Footballgenius Player Rating
State-of-the-art statistical methods allow us to decouple a singular player's performance from the performance of the whole squad and we can thus better judge the impact of a player on their team's success. Letting the algorithm run over our database consisting of more than two million football games and over 100,000 active players provides us with a meaningful performance index for each of those players: the Footballgenius Player Rating (FPR).
The FPR makes it possible to compare performances of players across different clubs, countries, divisions and age groups. Furthermore, it also provides us with predictions for the future career development of young players. FPR recognizes current and future key players early and reliably and can thus provide football clubs with crucial assistance in their personnel decisions.
Season Predictions
The team rating is based on the average Footballgenius Player Rating of the starting 11 of the last few games of each team. Based on the team ratings, footballgenius.io simulates the outcome of the season and predicts the final league table, together with the probabilities for different achievements, e.g. Champions League qualification.
We transparently report these predictions on predictions.footballgenius.io. The figure below displays the predictions for the top 4 teams in La Liga as of August 28th, 2025 and as of January 12th, 2026.
These predictions show that Real Madrid's squad has been rated lower than FC Barcelona's from the beginning of the season. This distance even increased throughout the first part of the season. Therefore, it does not come as a surprise to us that Real Madrid has fallen behind FC Barcelona. We expect FC Barcelona to remain at the top of the league and finish 8 points ahead of Real Madrid. Moreover, note that our prediction for the Top 4 from the start of the season is in line with the current standings in La Liga, proving the predictive power of the Footballgenius Player Ratings.
Match Overview — Final of the Supercopa de España
In the Supercopa de España final on January 11th, 2026, FC Barcelona emerged victorious with a 3-2 win over Real Madrid. This game turned out to seal the fate of Xabi Alonso as coach of Real Madrid. The match was closely contested, but the data-driven player ratings from footballgenius.io again show that this result did not come as a surprise.
The ratings of the starting 11 and bench players clearly show that FC Barcelona had a stronger squad on paper. Based on the rating of the starting lineups, our model calculated a win probability of 68% for Barcelona, which aligns with the actual result.
Alejandro Balde vs. Álvaro Carreras
As an example for the differences in Footballgenius Player Rating between the two teams, we take a closer look at the individual player ratings of the young left-back from both teams: Alejandro Balde from FC Barcelona and Álvaro Carreras from Real Madrid. Both are 22 years old, both are valued at €60.00m by Transfermarkt, but their FPR is different.
The two graphs below display the past, current and predicted future ratings of the two players. Solid lines represent actual ratings, while dashed lines represent predicted ratings. The horizontal lines represent average player ratings of selected leagues for comparison.
- Current Rating: 83
- Predicted Future Rating: Continues to rise, with a predicted peak above 90.
- Current Rating: 72
- Predicted Future Rating: Slight increase predicted, but remains below Balde's rating.
This comparison underscores the overall higher quality of Barcelona's squad compared to Real Madrid's. Similar differences in player rating also apply for other positions of the two squads. Our customers have access to the past, current and predicted ratings for all the players of the leagues in their packages.
Conclusion
The recent sacking of Xabi Alonso has brought attention to the issues at Real Madrid. However, the data-driven player ratings and season predictions clearly indicate that the problems are more due to the quality of the squad than the coaching staff. While coaching changes can have an impact, the fundamental issue lies in the overall strength and performance of the players on the field. By focusing on improving the squad's quality, Real Madrid can hope to return to their former glory and compete more effectively with teams like FC Barcelona.
For more insights and data-driven analysis on football teams and players, contact footballgenius.io and discover how our advanced analytics can help your team achieve its full potential.
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